October 21, 2008
Dec’08 open interest this morning was 101,311 contracts, up 641. Mch’09 open interest was 38,137 contracts, down 3. Total open interest was 171,930 contracts, up 2,021. In yesterday heavy volume sell off, looks like old Longs were replaced by new Longs. Certificated stocks total 1,175,920 bales, down 5,563 bales from the previous report. There were 3,795 bales that were decertified and there was only 1 bales awaiting review. The 2008/09 Far Eastern A-Index was down 210 points at 60.90.
As the option pit opened at 8:30AM, Dec was trading at 49.02. Just a minute before the options started trading, Dec made its current low of 48.98. Dec had opened this morning at 49.57 and made its current high of 49.65(+59) right after Dec’s opening. Before the option pit opened, trading in Dec was fairly light at about 650 contracts. As the option pit trading started, the selling on the screen picked up and pushed Dec down to a new low of 48.75(-31) which was also yesterday’s low of the day. This level only held for a few minutes as the persistent selling took out this level and pushed Dec down to a new low at 48.21(-85). This level was reached around 8:25AM. Dec was able to hold this level. Then some profit taking and new buying was able to jump Dec back up to 49.16. Once this buying faded, Dec quickly slipped back down to around 48.45. Dec was able to stabilize at this level and then slowly chopped from 48.45 up to 48.95. In Chicago, the overnight electronic grain markets ended with X-Soybeans down 14 cents, Z-Corn down 7 ½ cents and Z-Wheat down 4 cents. Currently the Dollar was fairly firm, trading up about 70 points per the Dollar Index. Crude oil was also under some pressure this morning, currently trading down about $2.20 per barrel. Back to our market, trading seemed to turn more two sided with Dec chopping in a narrow range between 48.95 and 48.65. Around 9:45AM the selling picked up enough to ease Dec down to 48.58. Some of this pressure may have been related to the Dow which opened about unchanged but then quickly traded down about 145 points. On the Screen there were 201 Deck's that were wanted on the close at even (.00). Dec was able to fend off this selling and was able to slowly grind back up to 49.06. This level was reached around 10:30AM. In Chicago, Soybeans opened about 5 to 15 cents higher but quickly moved into negative territory by 15 to 18 cents. In our market Dec then sold off from 49.06 down to 48.43. Dec was able to hold well above its previous low. Dec then had a rebound up to 48.70 but quickly headed south. On this move lower Dec only reached 48.50. The erratic trading continued with Dec quickly rebounding back up to 49.08. Then over the next hour Dec chopped between 48.60 and 48.99. The Dec/Mch straddle also continued to narrow, trading from 338 into 273 points. However, the straddle trading volume has been fairly light so far today. Around 11:50AM, the buying picked up and moved Dec from 48.80 on up to 49.28. At Noon, Dec was chopping around 49.15. Fifteen minutes later the buying picked up and moved Dec on up to 49.45. Today was just the opposite of yesterday. Dec has now moved above unchanged and at the same time the DOW had collapsed down over 200 point, Soybeans were down over 31 cents and oil was trading about $4.00 per barrel lower. Dec upward move stalled at 49.45 and Dec then slowly chopped back down to 49.00. The selling persisted and was able to push Dec under 49.00 and then on down to 48.86. This weakness did not last long and Dec was able to rally back up to 49.60, just five points under its early morning high of the day. Dec then chopped between 49.60 and 49.15. At 1:00PM Dec was trading around 49.20 and there were still 173 Dec's wanted on the close. Dec continued to trade with in the earlier 45 point trading range. Around 1:30PM there was another surge in the buying which pushed Dec through its earlier high of 49.65. Dec continued to rally up to a new high of 50.29(+123). At 2:00PM Dec was trading around 50.20 and there were about 75 Dec's still wanted on the close. A few minutes the balance of Dec wanted on the close were stopped out. About two minutes prior to the start of the one minute settlement period, Dec rallied from 50.20 up to 50.50. During the one minute settlement, Dec chopped erratically between 50.39 and a new high of 50.79(+173). During the last hour of the session, Dec ranged mostly between 50.75 and 50.46. Dec last tick of the session was at 50.58. Dec closed firm and near the top of its 258 point trading range, settling at 50.60(+154). The Dec/Mch straddle traded about 1,703 times, ranging between 338 and 273 points. The Mch/May straddle traded about 521 times, ranging between 168 and 195 points. Estimated volume was 13,800 contracts. Previous day’s volume was 31,239 contracts.
Daily Moving Averages:
Dec Oct 3 Day Average 50.74 51.16 7 Day Average 49.96 53.54 21 Day Average 54.65 57.25 40 Day Average 59.88 61.33 50 Day Average 61.68 62.70 100 Day Average 68.32 67.70 RSI: 40.9 18.8
| Contract | High | Low | Previous | Close | Change |
| Dec '08 | 50.79 | 48.21 | 49.06 | 50.60 | +154 |
| Mar '09 | 53.67 | 51.29 | 52.39 | 53.56 | +117 |
| May '09 | 55.61 | 53.19 | 54.29 | 55.40 | +111 |
| July '09 | 57.47 | 55.53 | 56.33 | 57.36 | +103 |
| Oct '09 | 59.82 | 59.82 | 58.72 | 59.90 | +118 |
| Dec '09 | 61.56 | 59.30 | 60.00 | 61.33 | +133 |
| Mar '10 | ---- | ---- | 63.35 | 64.88 | +153 |
| May '10 | ---- | ---- | 64.48 | 66.23 | +175 |
| July '10 | 67.43 | 66.97 | 66.73 | 67.43 | +70 |
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