USDA’s
Cotton Export Report for the week ending 05/01/2008 showed for the 2007/08
season net upland sales of 563,900RB which were 12% below the previous
week. Upland Shipments were 269,700 RB which were up 69% from the previous
week. Major buyers this week were China (311,000), Turkey (53,000),
Indonesia (38,800), Thailand (31,600), Vietnam (22,400), and Taiwan
(19,400). For the 2008/09 season there were net Upland Sales of 94,400 RB
which were mainly for Mexico (78,100). Net American Pima sales were 22,200
RB and American Pima shipments were 22,100 RB. For the 2008/09 season
there were net American Pima sales of 1,500 RB. Both Sales and Shipments
were above expectations.
There were 71 cotton notices issued this morning bring the total to date
3,005. Issuers were Dunavant-7, Goldman-45, and JP Morgan-19. Stoppers
were Citigroup-3, and Newedge-68.
May’08 open interest this morning, before the notices, was 380 contracts,
down 128. July’08 open interest this morning was 124,752 contracts, down
745. Dec’08 open interest was 102,204 contracts, up 919. Total open
interest was 248,306 contracts, up 327. Certificated stocks total
1,302,911 bales up 24,401 bales from the previous report. There were
129,307 bales awaiting review. The 2007/08 North European A-Index was
unchanged at 75.45 and the B-Index remains unquoted. The Far Eastern
A-Index was also unchanged at 73.75.
At 8:15AM July was trading around 70.33. July opened this morning at 70.37
and then traded in a narrow range between 70.13 and 70.52. When the Cotton
Export Report was released, July was trading around 70.40. The report
brought in some new buying which rallied July up to a new high of
70.76(+39). July then slipped back down to 70.35 and the trading turned
quite. July moved sideways mostly between 70.40 and 70.60. In Chicago the
electronic grain markets ended their early morning session with Soybeans
down 1 cent, Corn up 2 ¼ cents, and Wheat up 5 ¾ cents. Crude Oil was
currently trading about 25 cents lower and the Dollar was also weak
trading about 13 points lower. Around 10:00AM July buying picked up some
and tested the earlier high but ran out of steam at 70.72. July then faded
back down to 70.60. Just before the Chicago grains opened at 10:30AM, July
moved up to a new high of 70.85. July then dipped down to 70.71. Then a
few minutes later another wave of buying hit the screen and moved July to
another new high of 70.94. Some profit taking then pushed July back down
to around 70.52. A few minutes later the selling intensified and pushed
July down to a new low of 70.05(-32). A little over 100 Julys were wanted
at 70.00. These orders helped to halt this sell off. Some short covering
then rebounded July up to 70.25. Looked like our sell off was initiated by
a sell off in Chicago grains which moved into negative territory buy now
have rallied back with Soybeans up 7 to 8 cents and Corn up over 17 cents.
This recovery in Chicago started to bring more buying back into our
market. July started to creep higher and was able to reach 70.52. July
stalled at this level and then moved back down to 70.18. Trading again
turned slow and sideways as July moved mostly between 70.16 and 70.35.
Around 12:20PM, the buying picked up and moved July through 70.35 and on
up to 70.83. Around 1:15PM there was another pickup in the buying and this
time July was able to move up to 70.90. July then slipped back down to
70.50 on profit taking and new selling inspired by weakening grain prices.
July was able to hold this level and then staged a good rally. During the
one minute settlement period, July moved from 70.78 up to 70.88. On this
recovery move July continued to trade up to a new high of 71.14(+77).
July’s last tick of the session was at 71.10. July closed firm and near
its high, settling at 70.85(+48). Dec closed 850 points over July,
settling at 79.35(+48). The July/Dec straddle traded about 3,043 times and
ranged from 901 into 840 points. Most of the straddles were done between
840 and 850 points. Today’s estimated volume is 11,700 contracts. Previous
day’s volume was 10,371 contracts. Tomorrow, Friday 9th, at 8:30AM EDT the
USDA will release its monthly US and World Supply/Demand Reports.
|
Daily Moving Averages: |
July |
Dec |
| 3 Day Average |
70.61 |
79.13 |
| 7 Day Average |
70.16 |
78.53 |
| 21 Day Average |
73.25 |
81.44 |
| 40 Day Average |
74.67 |
81.99 |
| 50 Day Average |
76.73 |
83.47 |
| 100 Day Average |
74.63 |
80.23 |
| |
|
|
| RSI: |
43.7 |
46.4 |
|
Contract |
High |
Low |
Previous |
Close |
Change |
| July '08 |
71.14 |
70.05 |
70.37 |
70.85 |
+48 |
| Oct '08 |
76.46 |
75.75 |
75.67 |
76.38 |
+71 |
| Dec '08 |
79.63 |
78.50 |
78.87 |
79.35 |
+48 |
| Mar '09 |
83.67 |
83.43 |
83.07 |
83.67 |
+60 |
| May '09 |
85.07 |
84.62 |
84.54 |
85.08 |
+54 |
| July '09 |
86.14 |
85.68 |
85.60 |
86.19 |
+59 |
| Oct '09 |
90.00 |
90.00 |
86.50 |
87.09 |
+59 |
| Dec '09 |
87.71 |
87.25 |
87.21 |
87.76 |
+55 |
| Mar '10 |
---- |
---- |
89.19 |
89.54 |
+35 |
| May '10 |
90.00 |
90.00 |
89.94 |
90.34 |
+40 |
Please address
comments to Weil Brothers-Cotton, Inc., at weilbros@weilbros.com.
Additional Market Information,
including Cotton Options, can be obtained from The New York Board of
Trade.
.