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Monday, May 12, 2008
There were 93
cotton notices issued today bring the total to date 3,103. There was only one
issuer, Citigroup-93. Stoppers were Citigroup-3, and Newedge-90.
May’08 open interest this morning was 305 contracts, down 5. July’08 open
interest was 125,337 contracts, up 618. Dec’08 open interest was 103,354
contracts, up 1,213. Total open interest was 250,960 contracts, up 2,118.
Certificated stocks total 1,352,517 bales, up 17,224 bales from the previous
report. There were 106,461 bales awaiting review. The 2007/08 North European
A-Index was up 45 points at 76.40 and the B-Index remains unquoted. The Far
Eastern A-Index was also up 45 points at 74.70.
At 8:15AM July was trading at 71.45. July opened this morning at 71.70 which is
also July’s current high. July’s current low of 71.30 was made around 3:00AM.
Current trading volume was a very light 300 lots. After the option pit opened,
July came under some selling pressure which moved July down to a new low of
71.15. July was able to stabilize at this level and then inched back up to
71.30. The Chicago electronic grain markets ended their early morning session
with Soybeans up 13 ½ cents, Corn up 1 ¾ cents and Wheat down ½ cent. Crude Oil
was trading down about $1.60 per barrel. The Dollar was trading only about 6
points higher per the Dollar Index. July was unable to move any higher, and then
started to slowly move lower. By 10:30AM, July had traded down to a new low of
71.06. In Chicago, Soybeans opened about 12 to 15 cents higher but Corn was
trading down 10 to 11 cents. In our market July moved under 71.00 and then
traded erratically down to a new low of 70.20(-135). July finally stabilized at
this level and was able to climb back up to 71.00. This level was reached little
before Noon. Soybeans had traded into negative territory but then rallied and
were now up about 7 cents. This also helped July’s recovery. Once through 71.00
July continued to charge higher and was able to reach 71.60 by 12:45PM. This was
just 10 points under this morning’s high and 140 points over its low. This time
the lower Soybeans moved (-8 to-11 cents) the higher July moved. Ten minutes
later July broke through its high and continued its persistent rally, reaching
71.75. Some profit taking finally come into our market and moved July slowly
down to 71.25. By 2:00PM July had rallied back up to another new high of 71.91.
It has been quite amazing to watch July rally 171 points off its low while
Soybeans and Corn moved deeper into negative territory. This disconnect from the
grains is a first in a long time. During the one minute settlement period July
chopped mostly between 71.75 and 71.86. July then continued to chop erratically
between 71.63 and a new high of 71.96(+41). July last tick of the session was at
71.76. The July/Dec straddle was fairly active today trading about 2,476 times,
and ranging from 834 to 873 points. July closed steady and near its high,
settling at 71.81(+26). Dec closed 871 points over July, settling at 80.52(+29).
Estimated volume was 15,500 contracts. Previous day’s volume was 20,714
contracts.
After the electronic session ended, ICE released the Spec/Hedge Report for the
weed ending 5/9/2008. This report showed Specs were net Long 10.4%, down 1.2
percentage points from the previous week’s 11.6%. Specs held a net Long position
of 25,992 contracts, down 2,704 contracts from the previous week. For this week
Spec Longs gained 2,851 contracts, Spec Shorts gained 5,555 contracts, Hedge
Longs gained 391 contracts and Hedge Shorts lost 2,313 contracts. Total open
this week was 250,960 contracts, up 3,242 contracts from the previous week.
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Daily Moving Averages: |
July |
Dec |
| 3 Day Average |
71.40 |
80.03 |
| 7 Day Average |
70.54 |
79.03 |
| 21 Day Average |
72.64 |
80.96 |
| 40 Day Average |
74.11 |
81.61 |
| 50 Day Average |
76.30 |
83.24 |
| 100 Day Average |
74.69 |
80.38 |
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| RSI: |
49.5 |
52.9 |
|
Contract |
High |
Low |
Previous |
Close |
Change |
| July '08 |
71.96 |
70.20 |
71.55 |
71.76 |
+26 |
| Oct '08 |
77.42 |
76.06 |
77.15 |
77.41 |
+26 |
| Dec '08 |
80.61 |
78.95 |
80.23 |
80.52 |
+29 |
| Mar '09 |
84.75 |
84.15 |
84.57 |
84.82 |
+25 |
| May '09 |
85.54 |
85.54 |
85.96 |
86.17 |
+21 |
| July '09 |
86.65 |
86.65 |
87.16 |
87.30 |
+14 |
| Oct '09 |
90.00 |
90.00 |
88.06 |
88.10 |
+4 |
| Dec '09 |
88.25 |
88.25 |
88.81 |
88.95 |
+14 |
| Mar '10 |
---- |
---- |
90.46 |
90.68 |
+22 |
| May '10 |
91.50 |
91.50 |
91.06 |
91.50 |
+44 |
Please address
comments to Weil Brothers-Cotton, Inc., at weilbros@weilbros.com.
Additional Market Information,
including Cotton Options, can be obtained from The New York Board of
Trade.
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